The Kansas City Chiefs, fresh off of a historic comeback against the Houston Texans, will look to avoid being the third consecutive team to go against the NFL pick and prediction and fall at the hands of Derrick Henry and a potent Titans running attack on Sunday. Henry will look to be the first player in NFL history to rush for 180 yards in three consecutive playoff games after destroying two of the league’s best rush defenses, which were both the NFL pick against the Titans.
Kansas City ranked 26th in the league against the run during the regular season, surrendering over 128 yards per game and over 2,000 total rushing yards on the season, but let’s take an NFL preview of the AFC Championship Game.
The Chiefs fell behind to the Texans 24-0 before finally getting on the board with just under 10 minutes left in the second half last week. Over the next 39:54, the Chiefs outscored Houston 44-10 en route to a 51-31 victory that left Texans fans struggling for answers and further fueled the growing legend that is Patrick Mahomes.
These two teams met during the regular season. In Week 10, the Titans edged the Chiefs 35-32 in Tennessee despite Mahomes throwing for 442 yards and a trio of touchdowns. Tyreek Hill reeled in 11 catches for 157 yards, with two touchdowns.
The star of that game? It was Henry, of course, as he ran for 188 yards and two scores. Ryan Tannehill threw for 181 yards and another couple of scores as well.
Kansas City is a 7.5-point favorite playing at home, with the over/under set at 52.5.
Does The Cinderella Story Continue?
The Titans have defied all conventional logic in recent weeks, going 3-0 against the spread. They even outperformed the spread by a whopping 26 points last week against the Baltimore Ravens when they were 10 point underdogs going into the game.
On the season, Tennessee is 11-7 ATS, including 7-3 on the road as well as 5-0 ATS in its last five games away from home. The Titans’ total has gone over in 10 of their 18 games, and they split the over/under 5-5 on the road.
Offensively, the Chiefs are one of the most talented teams in the league, as they emphatically displayed last week against the Texans. It’s their defense that is cause for concern.
However, Kansas City has managed to be 12-5 against the spread overall and 6-3 ATS at home. The Chiefs are also currently on a seven-game winning streak ATS.
The high-scoring offense has not disappointed at home either, as the total has gone over in six of the Chiefs’ nine home games this season, though the total has gone under in five of their last seven games.
Tennessee Titans vs. Kansas City Chiefs NFL Pick and Prediction
On paper, this game shouldn’t really be close, but with the recent run that this Titans rushing attack has been on, it’s hard to bet against them. In the end, the Chiefs’ passing attack will be too much for Tennessee to stop.
Henry is primed to have himself a day against a defense that has given up 180 yards or more rushing five times this season, keeping the Titans close. Kansas City wins the game, but Tennessee covers. Take the over as NFL pick.
Tennessee Titans vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Date of game: Sunday, January 19th, 2020
Time and venue: 3:05 pm ET @ Arrowhead Stadium
Betting Spread: Chiefs -7.5 | Total 52.5
Pick & Prediction: Tennessee Titans +7.5